World Energy Scenarios

World Energy Scenarios

Scenarios provide an inclusive and strategic framework that enables big-picture thinking and decision making under deep uncertainty. They are designed to be used as a set to explore and navigate what might happen, not what should happen or what we want to happen. The World Energy Council has been developing scenarios for almost two decades to support a better-quality global strategic dialogue on the future of energy systems.

The scenarios can be used to:

• Explore plausible pathways and encourage deeper insights into energy transition on national, regional and global levels 
• Forge the new and still emerging energy leadership agendas
• Think ‘outside the box’ of existing solutions and policies
• Explore new opportunities and stress-test strategic options and policy choices

World Energy Scenario Foundations 2024

The recent Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, geopolitical realignments, the rise of AI, and the devastating consequences of severe climate-change-related weather events have profoundly affected the global economy and energy system. Our new World Energy Scenario Foundations build upon elements of the 2019 World Energy Council scenarios and the lessons learned since then. They recommend key questions that leaders of all kinds need to grapple with now to achieve better outcomes for their institutions as they navigate between Rocks and Rivers.

Learn more about the 2024 World Energy Scenario Foundations

Long-Term Scenarios

The World Energy Council introduced its long-term scenarios in 2016 which focuses on the 2060 time horizon and presents three alternative pathways though the Grand Transition – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock. Three years later, in 2019, the Council refreshed its global energy foresight and global scenarios narratives with focus on a 2040 time horizon to explore the role of disruptive innovation in energy transition.

Learn more about Long-Term World Energy Scenarios

Covid-19 Post-Crisis Scenarios

In response to Covid-19 the World Energy Council has developed a set of post-crisis scenarios for a medium term to 2025: Pause, Rewind, Re-Record and Fast-Forward. While long-term scenarios provide a broader context for Covid-19 response, post-crisis scenarios serve as a flexible tool to prepare for an unpredictable future and shape the post-crisis agenda. These scenarios allow us to navigate how we can emerge from this crisis as a more resilient society and progress successful energy transition.

Learn more about Post-Crisis Scenarios